mediating, social media-ising, social networking

Weapons of Mass Contagion: why our amazement and anger at Facebook’s emotion experiment is misdirected

Featured image: a Wordle of Facebook’s Statement of Rights and Responsibilities which “derives from the Facebook Principles, and is our terms of service that governs our relationship with users and others who interact with Facebook. By using or accessing Facebook, you agree to this Statement.” source

“We’re walking backwards into the future” observed Mark Holden as he introduced Jason Silva at PHD’s keynote at Cannes this year. his elegant observation describes how we can only see the future by looking at what has already happened, we project back over our shoulders to imagine what wonders are to come.

but every now and again we get to peek over our shoulder. occasionally the curtain that hides tomorrow’s world slips, and we get a glimpse of what is to come … and sometimes we come to suspect that our future may already be here. and sometimes we don’t like what we see.

such a slip occurred today when it was revealed that in 2012 Facebook collaborated with academics from Cornell and the University of California in an experiment to manipulate the news feeds of 689,000 users’ home pages … discovering in the process that – through a process known as ’emotional contagion’ the social network could actually make people feel more positive or negative.

they found that exposure to friends’ ‘positive emotional content’ led to fewer positive posts by those users. the opposite – an increase in negative posts occurred when exposure to ‘negative emotional content’ increased.

the reaction has been strong and has emerged from every side of the debate. Clay Johnson of the Barack Obama’s 2008 online presidential campaign commented that “The Facebook ‘transmission of anger’ experiment is terrifying”, whilst professor of law at Maryland University James Grimmelmann said Facebook had failed to gain ‘informed consent’ for the research. Even Jim Sheridan of Britain’s Commons media select committee, weighed in:

“This is extraordinarily powerful stuff and if there is not already legislation on this, then there should be to protect people … They are manipulating material from people’s personal lives and I am worried about the ability of Facebook and others to manipulate people’s thoughts in politics or other areas. If people are being thought-controlled in this kind of way there needs to be protection and they at least need to know about it.”

above quotes via The Guardian

it should be noted that the sheer audacity of a member of the UK Government criticizing data protection is the equivalent of the pot not just calling the kettle black, but hiring the Red Arrows to sky-write in big flashing rainbow letters “that kettle is black and this pot says so” in the skies above London. the UK Government’s (and silent Opposition’s) lack of response to the GCHQ Tempora revelations leaves them with little latitude to point the finger.

and yet they are pointing. and they’re not alone … in fact a small queue is forming around the block at Menlo Park to join in calls for “down with this sort of thing”.

the response is not surprising. its one of (1) our amazement that social contagion exists and is possible at such scale (2) concern that it appears to be so easy to manipulate and (3) anger at the revelation that as the curtain slipped, it revealed that as our lives, adventures, and hook-ups migrate online – we are more exposed, more vulnerable, more subject to the influence of (in the presence of doubt, assumed) dark forces.

if an algorithm can make me happier what does that say about me? if a social network can make me sad what does that say about my ability to self-determine who I am?

and yet this is the deal. this is the contract. every one of us who uses a social network does so with an inherent and reasonable value exchange. the problem isn’t the contract people have made with Facebook or any other social platform … the problem is that most people don’t stop to think about the fact that they’ve signed a contract in the first place.

until a decade ago our contract with media providers and marketing was one of an attention-based value exchange. brands paid for space that paid for content to which we gave our attention in exchange for getting that content for free. brands used that attention to generate reach which led to awareness and sales.

but the contract changed, its just that most people haven’t realised. the contract isn’t just attention based, its now also information based. a new generation of media platforms trade not in attention but information. Facebook trades in information about every aspect of our lives. Google sits on the largest database of intention information in the solar system. platforms sell this information to brands who use it to target, re-target, content create, segment, insight-generate and even start one-on-one conversations with us.

the information they’re using is ours. most people gave it away freely and willingly in a value exchange. an un-negotiated contract in which we handed over data for utility. and our data has bought us riches – Google’s search engine, Spotify’s music streaming, Facebook’s continual partial presence to everyone we know, or the credibility we get from the adulation of our #nofilter Instagram pic.

none of this came for free, we gladly paid for it with our information.

utility, information, education, inspiration, connection, entertainment, advice and Tinder swipes all paid for with information through a contract the existence of which most people are unaware. until the curtain slips.

people shouldn’t be amazed and angry by Facebook’s ability to unleash weapons of mass contagion. they should be amazed and angry that they rushed so headlong into a new contract without considering the implications. our anger is misdirected. Facebook and media organisations like them have created amazing utility in the world. if you’re going to get angry get angry with yourself for thinking that there was ever such a thing as a free lunch Instagram pic.

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advertising, broadcasting, marketing, mediating, opinionating, television

The Myopia of the 2020 Vision: Why we need a whole load more rational when we debate the merits of Television

Think TV, a marketing initiative of Free TV Australia (the body representing all of Australia’s free-to-air metropolitan and regional commercial television broadcasters), have released the latest in their 2020 Vision series. the episode – the first of series three – see’s industry heavy-weights including Jeff Goodby (Goodby, Silverstein and Partners) and Sir John Hegarty (BBH) discuss (in Think TV’s words) “the importance of broadcasting powerful, mass reaching, messages that connect with audiences”.

its a curious beast. but then communications about communications are always the most interesting of creatures … on the surface this is a straight-forward and very well produced piece of content which talks-up the role and power of TV. but take a closer look and a rather all-too defensive agenda emerges:

some highlights:

TV is till 60% of what we buy because it absolutely is the best place to be able to tell stories and connect people with your brand” … “we try to use video and television as a way to understand our customer … television is the only place you can do that” Kevin Mayer (Volkswagen of America Inc)

“the use of television is fundamental in telling a brand story and engaging with the audience in an intriguing and interesting way” Sir John Hegarty

“the great thing about TV … is that it allows you to go around the rational objections to a product … you have to find another emotional road to take people along so that they don’t think about the rational stuff anymore” Jeff Goodby

“if you’ve got the funding to do an ad, [TV is] still the one place you can get the biggest change in perception and appeal for your brand” Kevin Mayer

“there are two things brands have to do; they have to persuade and then they have to promote. digital technology has been brilliant at promotion, but if you’re not out there persuading, you’re not growing your brand … now, you can only do that with broadcast, because you don’t ultimately know where your audience is going to come from” Sir John Hegarty

“advertising expenditure globally is about $500bn a year. about $200bn of that goes on television. now, end of argument, alright?” Sir John Hegarty

“most of the money my clients spend is still on TV. I know that its very popular to think otherwise and go, you know, ‘what’s going on out there, there must be new things that we should be spending money on’ … and we end up spending on TV, just because it turns out to be the way to start something, the way to keep something going, the way to chance people’s minds” Jeff Goodby

“actually the internet kind of operates as an afterthought of the best TV commercials … people run to the internet to talk about them” Jeff Goodby

“as television evolves and becomes more targeted, I think you’re going to see an influx of dollars back into television because now you’re going to have efficiency and you’re going to have scale, and that’s where I think television is going to really see its second coming” Kevin Mayer

“we’re emotional creatures, and television is an emotional medium … it’s the most powerful selling tool advertisers have ever had at their disposal, and that ain’t changing – not for the foreseeable future” Sir John Hegarty

to say that some of those statements are subjective in the extreme is perhaps a bit of an understatement, and you could argue that’s fine if the piece was presenting itself as the subjective opinions of very respected industry professionals … but its not; Think TV’s description of the piece is “forward-thinking industry professionals reveal how television is rising to meet new marketing challenges with great success” (source) … which I actually think gets us into rather dangerous territory … because the success is pretty much ‘people saw my ad’, or ‘we emotionally engaged people’ or ‘lot’s of people spend lots of money on TV so it must work, alright’ …

now it’s easy to say that it’s “just a piece of video” or conversely that “these are the opinions of respected, and very successful, advertising men”, but don’t forget for a second this is just one grenade in an ongoing battle for communications revenues. this is about where brands invest marketing dollars – budgets that are increasingly under scrutiny by the companies that invest that money. and we’re not talking about spare change … the video’s own stats point out that $200bn is spent on TV – I think we’re going to have to do a little better to justify that than because television is “an emotional medium”.

it perhaps is no co-incidence that we receive this gem in the same week that online ad revenues overtook those for free-to-air TV. according to a report by the PwC for the AIB, (available to subscribers here), for the first six months of 2013 our industry in Australia invested $1,883m in online versus $1,805m investment in FTA TV.

the size of your spend isn’t of course everything. but it does count for a lot.

I like television. as a planner I value the role television can play in a plan. it delivers reach, often cost-effectively, and it delivers that scale quickly. and whilst, unlike Kevin Mayer, I probably wouldn’t describe the future of television as a “second coming”, I am excited by the opportunities that critical mass in connected TVs will bring.

but there’s a dangerous myopia in this 2020 Vision. statements like “digital technology has been brilliant at promotion, but if you’re not out there persuading, you’re not growing your brand” (Hegarty) or “the internet kind of operates as an afterthought” Goodby, do far less for TV’s case than embracing and exploring – say – the possibilities presented by digital storytelling and how they will be possible, with scale, in 2020 would have achieved.

a very wise man once told be to never let my strategy show. so when a video selling the benefits of TV says that “the great thing about TV … is that it allows you to go around the rational objections to a product … so that they don’t think about the rational stuff anymore” … I wonder whether we don’t need a whole load more rational as we mediate this ongoing debate.

featured image is a still from the above video of Volkswagen’s Darth Vader spot in Super Bowl XLV

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broadcasting, distributing, mediating, television, viewing

Begun, The Distribution Wars Have: How CBS vs Time Warner is only an opening salvo in the long hard battles to come

so that’s it. we’re at war.

as day three of the CBS / Time Warner stand off dawns, both sides are maintaining that they’re in the right … meanwhile three and a half million Americans are going without Hawaii Five-0.

oh the humanity.

for both sides the equation is clear … for CBS, how much do I need to extract from TW (and other distribution points) to cover with margin the cost of content. for CBS, how much can I justify paying for content given the revenues I can generate via people paying for access to the channels on my network? what else is clear is that we can expect many more of these battles to come.

there are two constants … content and people. and its the changing and evolving relationships people have with content that’s causing disruption, instability, and war: War between the factions that create content and those that distribute it. the current siege of Time is only the current battle in the early years of a war that has a long way to go.

the origins go way back and the early battles have already been played out. battles like the UK’s independent production sector versus the country’s commercial channels, or the ongoing rumblings between music labels and Spotify. and at the start of last year Rupert Murdoch – via Twitter obvs – dramatically accused Google of being the ‘piracy leader’ of silicon valley.

the war will only get hotter from here on in. to understand why you need only follow the money. PWC’s annual Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2013-2017 uses like-for-like, 5-year historical and forecast data across 13 industry segments in 50 countries to compare and contrast regional growth rates and consumer and advertising spend. this is the picture it paints for the coming years:

“Consumer demand for entertainment and media (E&M) experiences, fuelled largely by the adoption of broadband and connected devices, will continue to grow and we expect this growth to follow a similar trend to GDP development across the forecast period 2013-2017. However, given the shift towards digital media — typically lower priced than its physical counterpart — we anticipate spend to lag behind GDP growth.

The global E&M market will grow at a CAGR of 5.6% over the next five years, generating revenues in 2017 of US$2.2tn, up from US$1.6tn in 2012. Within this overall figure, all three sub-categories — advertising, consumer spend on content, and access — will continue to grow, but at varying rates.”

Source PWC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2013-2017

two really – really – important points. one, because of the shift to digital media, spend on E&M will lag behind GDP growth – the pot is shrinking in relative terms. two, whilst spending is anticipated to increase, the future isn’t evenly distributed:

“Consumer spend shifts from content to access: The rapid growth in spend on access means that there will be a shift in the share of overall global E&M spend from consumer spend on content (from 47% of the market in 2012 to 41% of the market in 2017) to consumer spend on access (from 24% of the market in 2012 to 30% of the market in 2017).”

Source PWC Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2013-2017

shift is spending, in real terms, away from content and into access to that content (spend on advertising is holding stable). we’re getting used to paying not for content, but instead for access to that content. whether its Spotify versus iTunes, or HBO’s Emmy and now Cannes credibility, it’s the distributor-networks that are currently strategically placed to gain the most.

but the thing is that the really big changes haven’t even started yet … there’s still a ton of inertia in TV advertising investment – big brands still, I think overly, rely on TV networks to get 30″ messages in front of people. reach is important, but its a necessity not a strategy for communications planning. brands have played for a long time now in being content creators, but they’re only just learning the power of being their own distributors …

new deals, new bargains, new negotiations … emerging between people and how they get access to content. if the old currency was attention through broadcast interruption, then the new currency is data through increasingly direct connections with people. the war was heating up without most major brands shifting even the smallest fraction of resource from broadcast advertising to creating and distributing content directly to people. the dual consequence – more competition for time spent with content and further reduced ad revenues – will see more than the three-day siege of a cable company.

there will be winners and losers, but perhaps the most notable victors in the coming war will be brands. marketing teams that successfully establish and then maintain direct relationships with existing and potential customers by creating and – crucially – distributing compelling and entertainment content.

cry havoc people … the dogs have slipped.

featured image via AP, and the following for no other reason than because I can 😉

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mediating

its good to be back

mediation_banner_470so hey there

mediation has been away for a year, but its OK as not that much happened.

in the UK there was a phone-hacking scandal that led to an inquiry into the independence of the press. the BBC appointed a couple of director generals. Google created a car that could drive itself, and are about to mainstream glasses with data on the screens. everyone became obsessed that winter was coming. comic superheroes kept us safe. in Australia Ten had a bad year, but arguably TV in general had a worse one. a few magazines closed and Aussie radio made headlines for all the wrong reasons.

OK so actually quite a lot happened.

so I’m back and here in a new home at cwstephenson to add my voice to the debate, between the traditional and the new; the established and the emerging; yesterday and tomorrow … mediating what’s next in the world of media, marketing and communications.

below this post are the imports of all my old posts from the old mediation site, above this post … well, let’s see what comes our way …

its good to be back

Cx

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